Watchlist

State PUC model-tariff adoptions beyond Colorado and Pennsylvania.

OBBBA safe-harbor project starts ahead of the July 2026 cutoff.

Taiwan LNG spot procurement activity (CPC Corp., next 30 days from publication).

Hyperscaler behind-the-meter power announcements, next 6 months from publication.

PJM Base Capacity Auction clearing price, June 2026.

Anthropic legal challenge trajectory, next 90 days from publication.

FERC RM26-4 progression to a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

FERC RM26-4 progression.

The grid rules set in September 2026 still stand on Sept. 30, 2027: they are extended, written into law or tightened more often than they lapse; at least one of Texas, Virginia or California acts to make them stick; none of the three goes back to its old rules; and states and towns, not Washington, are still the ones making the call.

TSMC results, Oct. 15: has Asia’s gas squeeze reached Taiwan’s chip factories?

Texas environmental agency update, Oct. 19: the progress report on the data center permit freeze.

Big tech earnings in late October, and the 10-year Treasury rate: is money pricier but still paid?

China’s export-rule notices, before Nov. 10 and Nov. 27: does the written deadline catch up with the spoken Jan. 10?

Local data center pause end dates, from about Jan. 19: a new rule, or a quiet lapse?

Texas grid study results, April 9, 2027: a likely trigger for Texas to lift its permit freeze.

Virginia’s and Texas’s 2027 legislative sessions: bills that write the grid rules into law or roll them back.

The price-to-permission scale itself: grid pauses turning into plain prices, and China’s metals moving without licenses.

The Senate and the federal grid regulator: does Washington take over the decision on who pays?

Through the end of 2030, no instrument with the authority to delay, cap, or halt frontier AI training takes effect in the United States or China — every instrument touching the spread of AI capability stays unilateral or bilateral.

Commission publication of the EU AI Act Article 52(6) list of general-purpose AI models with systemic risk.

US–China channel output: any joint statement, standard, or testing arrangement from the Bessent-led channel.

PRC comprehensive AI law, stage not signal: whether it reaches a scheduled first reading, and whether any published draft attaches at training rather than at service provision.

US federal instrument log: any licence gate, compute cap, or pause trigger over a training run.

Advanced-compute trade framework at the G20, taking effect with both the US and China inside.

WTO Appellate Body quorum: restored or not, base year 2019.

Frontier-lab position on a cap: whether any lab endorses a cap on training compute itself.

Open-weight capability compression: whether Kimi, DeepSeek, or another non-aligned open-weight model closes further on frontier benchmarks at continued low cost.

The guarantee gap widens, not narrows, through end-2027: the distance between gross disclosed maximum contingent exposure and what a diligent outsider can independently estimate as probability-weighted exposure.

Rating-agency AI-guarantee research: any expected-loss methodology named at capped AI-vendor guarantees and applied to two or more issuers.

FSOC / BIS formal study status: whether the Financial Stability Oversight Council moves from "requested to study" to a published assessment of AI-debt systemic risk.

New deal structure count: of the next five major tracked AI-infrastructure financings, how many use transparently priced structures versus capped or conditional guarantees.

KBRA AI-7 contingent-commitment tracker: whether a netted or probability-weighted figure appears alongside the gross ceiling.

Guarantee-call events: any disclosed instance of an AI-infrastructure guarantee actually being called.

Local-opposition project value: quarterly halted or blocked AI-datacenter project value.

Transformer lead-time resolution: whether Siemens’ flat-capacity-through-2030 guidance holds against WoodMac’s falling-lead-time read.

Gallium/germanium export-licensing renewal decision from Beijing, due November 27, 2026.

New-build and self-build siting share: Northern Virginia vs. alternative geographies.

Big-Four hyperscaler capex guidance citing AI demand or utilization as a reason for cuts.

Skilled labor pipeline: the 349,000–499,000 electrician / high-voltage-technician shortage.

Space-based compute funding and engineering milestones (Starcloud and peers).

By end-2027, Washington takes at least one formal allocation-side action on memory reaching commercial buyers, not only the strategic tier.

Commerce’s response to the July 14 procurement ask.

New York S10642/A11560 and copycat billing classes.

Memory contract prices, quarter over quarter.

Priority-rating or CHIPS-derived memory instruments.

China’s critical-minerals licensing (gallium, germanium, graphite).

The two-track sovereign-AI regime hardens rather than converges by mid-2027 — foreign-sovereign equity compounds while the U.S. ratifies no lab equity.

A sovereign board seat or bespoke governance right at any U.S. frontier lab.

A second MGX-class full-stack vehicle closing (Qatar’s Qai / Brookfield trajectory).

A frontier round unable to close without sovereign anchor money.

CFIUS Known Investor Program formalization and its first cohort.

The PIF-led EA deal outcome at its extended September 28 CFIUS date.

Any U.S. lab-equity vehicle ratification (the OpenAI 5% float or a successor).

Gulf deployment pace (Mubadala, MGX, PIF quarterly commitments).

The state-by-state grid-connection cost spread widens, and fragmentation persists, through 2027.

The six §206 compliance filings.

The New York large-load moratorium.

The spread: any new state instrument at either pole.

A campus that moves.

The grandfather seam.

Market-operator rules (PJM, MISO, et al.; ERCOT apart).

NextEra-Dominion ($67B).

Annual China fab licenses (BIS VEU renewal) for Samsung China and SK Hynix China.

Memory contract prices and construction milestones (P&T7 and peer fabs).

DRAM antitrust litigation against the three memory makers.

Where AI-grade memory and packaging capacity is sited.

Capital spending guidance, and how it is financed.

Compression in production model size and inference footprint.

The power queue, from both ends: turbine/transformer delivery slots reserved, and interconnection queue withdrawal rates.

Government action on open models, following June 2026's export-control precedent.

Transformer lead times (delivered-and-energized, not OEM quotes).

Heavy-frame turbine slots at GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi.

Grid-equipment order books and margin line.

Interconnection-queue culls at PJM, ERCOT, and MISO.

Behind-the-meter announcements: genset and fuel-cell lead times.

Virginia SCC merger docket on NextEra–Dominion.

Peer $30B+ regulated utility consolidation naming AI demand as a primary growth driver.

OEM supply-chain consolidation beyond GE Vernova–Prolec GE.

Federal preemption legislation in the 120th Congress.

Replacement AI executive order or reissued federal corridor authority.

Hyperscaler response to the Dominion deal.

Antitrust posture on cloud-power adjacency.

Hyperscaler developer-platform equity stakes (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle).

Top-ten electrical-equipment OEM M&A activity.

Antitrust posture on cloud-power adjacency.

Sovereign-AI infrastructure announcements (EDF–Mistral, G42, HUMAIN, METI).

Virginia HB 1515 disposition.

FERC June 2026 PJM large-load co-location ruling.

November 2026 midterm outcome and 120th Congress opening posture.

November 2026 Imperial County ballot initiative on a data center ban.

ERCOT next CDR report and Bloom Energy Q1 2026 update.

UK AI Opportunities Action Plan milestones.

BIS export control actions and chip allocation decisions.

NVIDIA sovereign AI revenue by geography.

European and Indian sovereign AI program communications.

WTO dispute settlement status.

CPower/Bentaus production deployment results.

Kraken–Uplight integration timeline for dispatching AI compute loads in live ISO markets.

NemoClaw/OpenClaw enterprise adoption velocity among GTC 2026-named enterprises.

FERC demand-response classification for AI compute.

GE Vernova and Siemens Energy backlog.

PUC exit fee dockets in Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio.

FERC gas lateral permitting timelines.

GE Vernova / Siemens equipment backlog.

Hyperscaler CCS / SMR milestones — Google's Broadwing CCS and Amazon's X-Energy SMR.

Behind-the-meter vs. grid-tied capacity ratio (EIA Form 860).

MISO/SPP fast-track interconnection filings, Q2 2026.