Tracked forecast · watch-15-3
PRC comprehensive AI law, stage not signal: whether it reaches a scheduled first reading, and whether any published draft attaches at training rather than at service provision.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- China’s existing measures attach at service provision. A draft attaching at the training run is the structural change to watch, not the announcement.
- Horizon
- Quarterly — NPC Standing Committee calendar
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The law has sat as a reserve item. Movement to a scheduled first reading is the stage change that matters, and what it attaches to decides whether it touches this forecast at all.
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