Tracked forecast · watch-15-2
US–China channel output: any joint statement, standard, or testing arrangement from the Bessent-led channel.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- Anything binding both parties is the leg the forecast turns on. A unilateral instrument is the forecast holding, not breaking.
- Horizon
- As events land — from the September 24 meeting
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The only live bilateral channel between the two states that build the frontier. Output that binds both is the most direct available path to falsifying the forecast.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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