Tracked forecast · watch-09-5
The grandfather seam.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- How Texas implements its post-December 31 line, and whether other states pierce or protect their installed base.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 9 — The Grid Bill Comes Due · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Every state draws a date and decides who sits on the safe side of it. Where that line falls determines whether the installed base is an asset or a liability, and it is where the patchwork gets its stickiness.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
Get the next forecast when it is published
Free. Biweekly. No sponsored research. Every forecast tracked in public with its kill condition attached.
GET THE LETTER