Tracked forecast · watch-05-5

ERCOT next CDR report and Bloom Energy Q1 2026 update.

Open

Chokepoint: Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
Kill condition: Realization-rate updates reset the Texas anchor; Bloom's relative-share data tests the Iowa–Nebraska "legacy permissive declining" classification.
Horizon: Semi-annual
Source: Issue 5 — The Subnational Sovereigns · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

ERCOT’s realization-rate updates reset the Texas demand anchor; Bloom’s relative-share data tests the “legacy permissive declining” classification.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

FULL WATCHLIST

Get the next forecast when it is published

Free. Biweekly. No sponsored research. Every forecast tracked in public with its kill condition attached.

GET THE LETTER