Tracked forecast · watch-15-8
Open-weight capability compression: whether Kimi, DeepSeek, or another non-aligned open-weight model closes further on frontier benchmarks at continued low cost.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- Tests whether Montreal’s condition 5 stays inverted — the nearest substitute sitting outside any coalition that could write a rule.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Montreal turned when the incumbent had a substitute to trade. Here the nearest substitute is an open-weight model no coalition controls, which cuts against restraint rather than enabling it.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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