Tracked forecast · watch-14-6
Local-opposition project value: quarterly halted or blocked AI-datacenter project value.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- A sharp change reshapes the deal-flow assumptions underneath the forecast’s volume leg. Tracked via Data Center Watch.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 14 — The Guarantee Gap · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The forecast’s first leg assumes capped, conditional deal volume keeps growing. Siting losses are the channel most likely to interrupt that without any change in financing fashion.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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