Tracked forecast · watch-16-4
China’s export-rule notices, before Nov. 10 and Nov. 27: does the written deadline catch up with the spoken Jan. 10?
Open
- Chokepoint
- Raw Materials — Gallium, rare-earth magnets, and export-licensing regimes layered on top of geology. (Closest to a true hard limit)
- Kill condition
- A commerce ministry notice extending the pauses to match Washington’s Jan. 10 date would put the truce in writing. Until then, the written deadlines arrive first.
- Horizon
- Weekly, through Nov. 27
- Source
- Issue 16 — Price or Permission · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Tests the metals reading. Treasury says the truce runs to Jan. 10; as of Sept. 28, China’s own notices still paused the rare-earth controls only until Nov. 10 and the US ban only until Nov. 27. The permission end of the scale: the gatekeeper holds the calendar.
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