Tracked forecast · watch-15-7
Frontier-lab position on a cap: whether any lab endorses a cap on training compute itself.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- As distinct from endorsing evaluation, transparency, or pacing tools. The Montreal condition-5 analogue: the incumbent conceding the thing it actually holds.
- Horizon
- As statements land
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Nine of the eleven asks on the record came from lab leadership, and none asked for a cap on compute. An incumbent volunteering that is the turn every historical regime needed.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
Get the next forecast when it is published
Free. Biweekly. No sponsored research. Every forecast tracked in public with its kill condition attached.
GET THE LETTER