Tracked forecast · watch-14-2
FSOC / BIS formal study status: whether the Financial Stability Oversight Council moves from "requested to study" to a published assessment of AI-debt systemic risk.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- A published systemic-risk assessment is the regulator-side half of the forecast’s first breaking condition.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 14 — The Guarantee Gap · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The commentary already exists — Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, BIS — without a formal assessment behind it. Moving from commentary to assessment is what would put a method on the record.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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