Aroko

Tracked forecast · watch-02-6

Behind-the-meter vs. grid-tied capacity ratio (EIA Form 860).

Open

Chokepoint
Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
Kill condition
The single best measure of defection pace — no baseline exists yet.
Horizon
Quarterly, EIA Form 860
Source
Issue 2 — A Tale of Two Grids · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

The behind-the-meter versus grid-tied capacity ratio is the single best measure of defection pace — once a baseline exists in the EIA data.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

FULL WATCHLIST

Get the next forecast when it is published

Free. Biweekly. No sponsored research. Every forecast tracked in public with its kill condition attached.

GET THE LETTER