Tracked forecast · watch-01-3
Hyperscaler behind-the-meter power announcements, next 6 months from publication.
Resolved: held
- Chokepoint
- Power Equipment — Turbines, transformers, and the switchgear that connects generation to the grid. (Rations by lead time)
- Kill condition
- Watch for major tech companies announcing dedicated alternative-energy projects exceeding 500 MW capacity.
- Horizon
- SEC filings, NRC license applications — 6 months
- Source
- Issue 1 — Taiwan Triage · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Whether hyperscalers would commit to dedicated alternative-energy projects above 500 MW within six months — the behind-the-meter thesis’s near-term test.
How it resolved
Resolved 2026-08-20. The window ran and the claim held: ~9.8 GW of nuclear committed across 13 hyperscaler deals by July 2026 (Meta alone 5.2–6.6 GW), plus Amazon’s $20B+ Susquehanna campus and Meta’s New Albany behind-the-meter gas plants. Most capacity is committed, not yet operational.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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