Tracked forecast · watch-09-3
The spread: any new state instrument at either pole.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- A fresh full cause-and-pay order or a new half-and-socialize rule widens the gap the call rests on.
- Horizon
- Monthly
- Source
- Issue 9 — The Grid Bill Comes Due · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The call is about the gap, not the level. Movement at either end — a harder pierce or a softer socialization — pulls the poles further apart and reprices where a campus can afford to land.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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