Tracked forecast · watch-12-1
Annual China fab licenses (BIS VEU renewal) for Samsung China and SK Hynix China.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Chips & Packaging — Advanced packaging and memory (HBM) supply, concentrated among a handful of manufacturers. (Raises price)
- Kill condition
- Renewal is not automatic — the open-ended regime was deliberately revoked in 2025. Non-renewal or in-year re-scoping is the tell.
- Horizon
- Annual, with in-year re-scoping possible
- Source
- Issue 12 — The Hostage Chip · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Samsung’s and SK Hynix’s China fabs now run on annual US licenses. A non-renewal or mid-year re-scoping would weaponize the memory supply chain overnight.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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