Tracked forecast · watch-01-1
Taiwan LNG spot procurement activity (CPC Corp., next 30 days from publication).
Resolved: held
- Chokepoint
- Raw Materials — Gallium, rare-earth magnets, and export-licensing regimes layered on top of geology. (Closest to a true hard limit)
- Kill condition
- If CPC Corp. secures replacement LNG cargoes from Australia or the U.S. Gulf Coast within two weeks, the acute silicon supply risk recedes.
- Horizon
- Bloomberg LNG tracker, CPC Corp. — near-term
- Source
- Issue 1 — Taiwan Triage · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
An acute test from the Taiwan scenario: whether CPC could replace disrupted LNG cargoes fast enough to protect the power that keeps the fabs running.
How it resolved
Resolved 2026-08-20. CPC turned to the spot market and diversified: US LNG deliveries to Taiwan roughly tripled to ~1.33m mt over March–May 2026, supplies stayed uninterrupted, and coverage was secured through September 2026. The acute silicon supply risk receded.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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