Tracked forecast · forecast-10-1
The two-track sovereign-AI regime hardens rather than converges by mid-2027 — foreign-sovereign equity compounds while the U.S. ratifies no lab equity.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- Cleanest tell that breaks it: a sovereign investor getting an actual board seat.
- Horizon
- Mid-2027
- Source
- Issue 10 — The Sovereign Meter · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Tracks whether sovereign wealth keeps compounding equity in US AI labs while the US ratifies none of its own — the two-track regime hardening rather than converging.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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