Tracked forecast · watch-15-5
Advanced-compute trade framework at the G20, taking effect with both the US and China inside.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- Conjunctive by construction: the framework alone does not resolve the forecast, at least one other warning sign has to fire alongside it.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The multilateral route, tested at the only forum where both parties sit. Membership matters more than text — a framework either of them stays outside of leaves the forecast intact.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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