Tracked forecast · bet-09-1
The state-by-state grid-connection cost spread widens, and fragmentation persists, through 2027.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- A converging federal standard from FERC, in either direction, kills this bet.
- Horizon
- Through 2027
- Source
- Issue 9 — The Grid Bill Comes Due · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The bet that grid-connection costs stay fragmented state-by-state through 2027. A converging federal standard from FERC, in either direction, kills it.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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