Tracked forecast · watch-10-6
Any U.S. lab-equity vehicle ratification (the OpenAI 5% float or a successor).
Open
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- The primary what-breaks-it; congressional action here turns the stalled instrument live.
- Horizon
- At congressional action
- Source
- Issue 10 — The Sovereign Meter · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The forecast rests on one track staying stalled. U.S. equity actually ratified would close the gap between the two tracks and end the asymmetry the letter describes.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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