Tracked forecast · watch-09-1

The six §206 compliance filings.

Open

Chokepoint: Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
Kill condition: Convergence on a common FERC-templated cost-allocation breaks the call; divergent filings confirm it. RM26-4 stays a separate national-rule track.
Horizon: 60-day filings due ~August 17, 2026 (extendable ~90 days)
Source: Issue 9 — The Grid Bill Comes Due · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

The first dated test of the fragmentation call. Six operators answering the same order in six different ways is the whole thesis; six answering it the same way is the end of it.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

FULL WATCHLIST

Get the next forecast when it is published

Free. Biweekly. No sponsored research. Every forecast tracked in public with its kill condition attached.

GET THE LETTER