Aroko

Tracked forecast · watch-02-3

GE Vernova / Siemens equipment backlog.

Open

Chokepoint
Power Equipment — Turbines, transformers, and the switchgear that connects generation to the grid. (Rations by lead time)
Kill condition
The 80 GW backlog figure is the equipment-squeeze signal for the thesis.
Horizon
Quarterly earnings
Source
Issue 2 — A Tale of Two Grids · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

The headline equipment backlog is the single squeeze signal for the two-grids thesis — the number that says the wall is real.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

FULL WATCHLIST

Get the next forecast when it is published

Free. Biweekly. No sponsored research. Every forecast tracked in public with its kill condition attached.

GET THE LETTER