Tracked forecast · watch-12-2
Memory contract prices and construction milestones (P&T7 and peer fabs).
Open
- Chokepoint
- Chips & Packaging — Advanced packaging and memory (HBM) supply, concentrated among a handful of manufacturers. (Raises price)
- Kill condition
- Prices tell you the state; construction milestones tell you the schedule. Divergence between them is the tell that the constraint is not construction.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 12 — The Hostage Chip · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Prices tell you the state of memory scarcity; construction milestones tell you the schedule. Divergence between them is the tell that the constraint is not construction.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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