Tracked forecast · forecast-11-1
By end-2027, Washington takes at least one formal allocation-side action on memory reaching commercial buyers, not only the strategic tier.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Chips & Packaging — Advanced packaging and memory (HBM) supply, concentrated among a handful of manufacturers. (Raises price)
- Kill condition
- Explicitly not forecasting continued scarcity — memory is likely oversupplied by 2028. The forecast is that allocation power is acquired first and retained after.
- Horizon
- By end of 2027
- Confidence
- ~60%
- Source
- Issue 11 — The Allocation Ratchet · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
A ~60% forecast that Washington extends allocation machinery to memory reaching commercial buyers by end-2027. The bet is that allocation power is acquired first and retained after — not that scarcity persists.
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