Tracked forecast · watch-12-3

DRAM antitrust litigation against the three memory makers.

Open

Chokepoint: Chips & Packaging — Advanced packaging and memory (HBM) supply, concentrated among a handful of manufacturers. (Raises price)
Kill condition: Tests whether the squeeze reflects managed output rather than the AI transition. The allegations are untested and the companies dispute them.
Horizon: As it develops
Source: Issue 12 — The Hostage Chip · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

Class-action allegations that the three DRAM makers managed output. If credited, the squeeze reads as strategy, not AI-transition physics.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

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