Tracked forecast · watch-15-6
WTO Appellate Body quorum: restored or not, base year 2019.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- Binary. Quorum has been lost since December 10, 2019.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
A proxy for whether multilateral enforcement machinery is being repaired at all. If the existing adjudicator cannot be restaffed, a new instrument with teeth is a longer reach than the asks assume.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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