Tracked forecast · watch-01-4
PJM Base Capacity Auction clearing price, June 2026.
Resolved: held
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- Prices above $300/MW-day confirm crowding-out dynamics; below $200/MW-day weakens the thesis.
- Horizon
- PJM auction results — June 2026
- Source
- Issue 1 — Taiwan Triage · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The PJM capacity auction is the price signal for AI load crowding out other demand.
How it resolved
Resolved 2026-08-20. The 2028/29 Base Residual Auction (run July 14, 2026) cleared at the $325/MW-day price cap — above the $300 confirmation threshold. The unconstrained price would have been $554.72; third consecutive cap-bound auction.
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