Tracked forecast · watch-12-8
Government action on open models, following June 2026's export-control precedent.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Raw Materials — Gallium, rare-earth magnets, and export-licensing regimes layered on top of geology. (Closest to a true hard limit)
- Kill condition
- Whether June's precedent spreads to other jurisdictions.
- Horizon
- As events occur
- Source
- Issue 12 — The Hostage Chip · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Whether the June 2026 precedent of export-controlling model weights spreads to other jurisdictions — especially onto open-weight models.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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