Tracked forecast · forecast-16-1
The grid rules set in September 2026 still stand on Sept. 30, 2027: they are extended, written into law or tightened more often than they lapse; at least one of Texas, Virginia or California acts to make them stick; none of the three goes back to its old rules; and states and towns, not Washington, are still the ones making the call.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- Two of Texas, Virginia and California go back to their old rules by Sept. 30, 2027, through actions dated after Sept. 28, 2026. Texas lifting its freeze with conditions only a private lawsuit could enforce counts as going back; new conditions count only if they come with a price, a cap or an agency to enforce them. Separately, a federal law or federal regulator’s order on who pays that takes the decision away from the states. The House bill as passed does not count, because it only asks.
- Horizon
- Through Sept. 30, 2027
- Confidence
- 55–60%
- Source
- Issue 16 — Price or Permission · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Scored as the letter states: rules still in force but no big state locking them in is a partial miss; one of the three states going back is a miss; two is the direction wrong. Local pauses count toward the forecast only if at least four come due. The likeliest failure is a quiet one: Texas’s freeze ends when ERCOT finishes its review, which may be the study due April 9, 2027.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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