Tracked forecast · watch-05-3
November 2026 midterm outcome and 120th Congress opening posture.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- An aligned Congress accelerates the Cotton DATA Act and successor preemption legislation; a divided Congress stalls preemption and reinforces state DC-infrastructure authority.
- Horizon
- One-time event, November 2026, with rolling first-100-days assessment
- Source
- Issue 5 — The Subnational Sovereigns · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The midterm decides whether federal preemption legislation accelerates or stalls — the federal-versus-state authority question in one vote.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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