Tracked forecast · forecast-15-1
Through the end of 2030, no instrument with the authority to delay, cap, or halt frontier AI training takes effect in the United States or China — every instrument touching the spread of AI capability stays unilateral or bilateral.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- A rule takes effect giving a government or independent body real authority to delay, cap, or halt a frontier training run — in the US, in China, or binding on both. A licence requirement, a compute cap, or a pause trigger with specific conditions attached counts. Reporting duties, transparency requirements, voluntary commitments, and EU-only market rules do not.
- Horizon
- Through end-2030
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Explicitly not a forecast that frontier AI goes ungoverned: unilateral and bilateral instruments keep accumulating, and export controls remain the longest-running active tool. The forecast is narrower — nothing acquires authority over the training run itself, and nothing binds the US and China together.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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