Tracked forecast · watch-02-5
OBBBA safe-harbor project starts ahead of the July 2026 cutoff.
Resolved: held
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- Volume before the July 2026 cutoff determines the size of the 2028 deployment gap.
- Horizon
- Monthly through July 2026
- Source
- Issue 2 — A Tale of Two Grids · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
How much renewable capacity got safe-harbored before the July 2026 tax-credit cutoff sizes the 2028 deployment gap.
How it resolved
Resolved 2026-08-20. 216–240 GWdc of solar was safe-harbored before the July 4, 2026 cutoff — enough to cover forecast installations through the end of the decade — plus ~16 GW of wind. A June 2026 court ruling restoring the 5% safe harbor remains under appeal.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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