Tracked forecast · watch-08-1
Transformer lead times (delivered-and-energized, not OEM quotes).
Open
- Chokepoint
- Power Equipment — Turbines, transformers, and the switchgear that connects generation to the grid. (Rations by lead time)
- Kill condition
- Staying near four years at the long end keeps the read intact; a fall back toward the ~2.5-year average is the first sign supply is winning.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 8 — The Equipment Wall · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The delivered-and-energized transformer number, not OEM quotes. Near four years keeps the equipment-wall read intact; a slide toward 2.5 years means supply is winning.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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