Tracked forecast · forecast-14-1
The guarantee gap widens, not narrows, through end-2027: the distance between gross disclosed maximum contingent exposure and what a diligent outsider can independently estimate as probability-weighted exposure.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- Breaks on either of two conditions: a named rating agency or systemic-risk regulator publishes a generalizable expected-loss or probability-weighted-exposure methodology for capped AI-infrastructure vendor guarantees, applied to at least two distinct issuers, before end-2027; or a majority of the next several major tracked deals shift to transparently priced structures. A single guarantor disclosing its own deal does not count.
- Horizon
- Through end-2027
- Confidence
- High on both legs
- Source
- Issue 14 — The Guarantee Gap · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Not a claim that no pricing method exists — a claim that deal volume keeps outrunning methodology, because the incentive runs against being the first guarantor to publish the assumptions that would let outsiders price its exposure.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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