Tracked forecast · watch-13-3

New-build and self-build siting share: Northern Virginia vs. alternative geographies.

Open

Chokepoint: Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
Kill condition: If genuinely new, not-yet-queued projects keep choosing NoVA, "no exit" upgrades to "preference." If they don’t, the thesis needs qualifying by vintage.
Horizon: Semi-annually — CBRE / JLL data center reports
Source: Issue 13 — No Exit to Orbit · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

Tests the letter’s “no exit” claim: if brand-new projects still choose Northern Virginia despite seven-year interconnection waits, congestion is a preference problem, not an exit problem.

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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

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