Tracked forecast · watch-14-5
Guarantee-call events: any disclosed instance of an AI-infrastructure guarantee actually being called.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- The involuntary-disclosure path the letter names as the gap’s natural endpoint — the loss curve becoming public because it had to.
- Horizon
- As they happen
- Source
- Issue 14 — The Guarantee Gap · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Railway paper and dark fiber both revealed who absorbed the loss only once something broke. A called guarantee is where that lesson gets repriced in public.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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