Tracked forecast · watch-13-2

Gallium/germanium export-licensing renewal decision from Beijing, due November 27, 2026.

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Chokepoint: Raw Materials — Gallium, rare-earth magnets, and export-licensing regimes layered on top of geology. (Closest to a true hard limit)
Kill condition: Whether the framework is renewed, tightened, or lapses determines if Plateau 2’s materials chokepoint bites early or on schedule.
Horizon: Event-driven — watch Oct–Nov 2026
Source: Issue 13 — No Exit to Orbit · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

Beijing’s export-licensing framework for gallium and germanium — inputs upstream of power electronics and optics — is suspended only until November 27, 2026. Renewal, tightening, or lapse sets the timing of the materials chokepoint.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

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