Tracked forecast · watch-16-8
The price-to-permission scale itself: grid pauses turning into plain prices, and China’s metals moving without licenses.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- If both happen by next September, September 2026 was a snapshot, not a direction. Reported, not graded.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 16 — Price or Permission · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The letter places each input on the scale from written rules and posted prices, not outcomes. This item spans the grid and raw materials; it is tagged by its lead subject, the grid.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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