Tracked forecast · watch-13-6
Space-based compute funding and engineering milestones (Starcloud and peers).
Open
- Chokepoint
- Power Equipment — Turbines, transformers, and the switchgear that connects generation to the grid. (Rations by lead time)
- Kill condition
- Watch for funding that meaningfully closes the ~0.02%-of-hyperscaler-capex gap, or engineering claims narrowing the 4–10x panel-weight and 5–10-generation chip deficits.
- Horizon
- Ad hoc — funding announcements + technical disclosures
- Source
- Issue 13 — No Exit to Orbit · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The “leave the planet” escape hatch: space-based compute is only a real alternative if funding and engineering close gaps currently measured in orders of magnitude.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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