Tracked forecast · watch-15-4
US federal instrument log: any licence gate, compute cap, or pause trigger over a training run.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- Distinct from reporting and transparency duties, which do not count. Revoked EO 14110 is the precedent for why the distinction is load-bearing.
- Horizon
- Quarterly — Federal Register and congress.gov
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The primary domestic falsifier. The one US instrument that ever set a compute threshold was an interim reporting default, and it was revoked in January 2025.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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