Tracked forecast · watch-07-6

FERC RM26-4 progression to a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

Resolved: missed

Chokepoint: Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
Kill condition: Advancing on its mid-2026 track determines whether large-load cost-assignment becomes a federal floor or remains state-by-state.
Horizon: Quarterly docket check
Source: Issue 7 — The Rebundle · full issue

Why it is on the watchlist

Whether FERC turned its large-load inquiry into a nationwide proposed rulemaking by mid-2026 — a federal floor versus state-by-state outcomes.

How it resolved

Missed 2026-08-20. The mid-2026 NOPR did not happen; FERC chose per-RTO §206 show-cause orders on June 18, 2026, leaving large-load cost assignment region-by-region for now.

How Aroko tracks forecasts

Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.

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