Tracked forecast · watch-16-3
Big tech earnings in late October, and the 10-year Treasury rate: is money pricier but still paid?
Open
- Chokepoint
- Financing — Not a physical constraint — who's exposed if one of the physical chokepoints bites harder than expected. (Moves financial risk downstream)
- Kill condition
- A 10-year close back below 4.8 percent would say money is getting cheaper.
- Horizon
- Rate daily, earnings quarterly
- Source
- Issue 16 — Price or Permission · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Tests the money reading. The 10-year closed at 5.24 percent on Sept. 28, its highest since June 2007, and SoftBank paid up to 9.75 percent on about $11.1 billion of bonds. Borrowing costs more, and so far borrowers are paying.
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Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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