Tracked forecast · watch-06-3
State PUC model-tariff adoptions beyond Colorado and Pennsylvania.
Resolved: held
- Chokepoint
- Grid Connections & Local Approval — Interconnection queues, siting fights, and the regulatory dockets (FERC, state PUCs, SCCs) that decide them. (Mostly price, occasionally an outright no)
- Kill condition
- Adoption in Virginia, Texas, Ohio, or Georgia marks the voluntary-to-mandatory crossing critical mass.
- Horizon
- Monthly rolling scan
- Source
- Issue 6 — The New Utility · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
Model large-load tariffs spreading beyond Colorado and Pennsylvania into Virginia, Texas, Ohio, or Georgia marks the voluntary-to-mandatory crossing.
How it resolved
Resolved 2026-08-20. Critical mass hit: Virginia (Dominion GS-5), Texas (SB 6), and Ohio (AEP tariff) all adopted large-load tariffs, and 24 states had approved at least one by June 2026.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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