Tracked forecast · watch-11-5
China’s critical-minerals licensing (gallium, germanium, graphite).
Open
- Chokepoint
- Raw Materials — Gallium, rare-earth magnets, and export-licensing regimes layered on top of geology. (Closest to a true hard limit)
- Kill condition
- A widening is the standing retaliatory instrument, and it reaches the supply chains this letter maps.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 11 — The Allocation Ratchet · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The ratchet has a mirror image abroad: licensing machinery already built and pointed. Widening it is the cheapest available retaliation, and it lands on the same inputs.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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