Tracked forecast · watch-15-1
Commission publication of the EU AI Act Article 52(6) list of general-purpose AI models with systemic risk.
Open
- Chokepoint
- Governance & Coordination — Not a physical constraint — whether any rule with authority over a frontier training run takes effect, and whether any instrument binds the US and China together rather than one of them alone. (Has not yet rationed anything)
- Kill condition
- The cheapest available route from a private count of frontier models to a shared one. Still unpublished.
- Horizon
- Quarterly
- Source
- Issue 15 — Full Speed Ahead · full issue
Why it is on the watchlist
The AI Act obliges the Commission to publish this list. Until it does, no institution anywhere holds a public, agreed roster of the models any rule would apply to.
How Aroko tracks forecasts
Every item is reproduced from a published issue with its original kill condition intact. Status changes only on dated, citable evidence that meets that condition, reviewed weekly. Nothing is resolved in hindsight to improve the record.
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