ISSUE 009 · The Aroko Letter
The Grid Bill Comes Due
The cost of connecting to the grid now fractures state by state — and the spread, not the megawatt, reprices where AI can afford to land
An identical 100 MW campus now costs roughly 16x more to connect in a full-pierce state than in Texas — with New York effectively at exclusion. Sovereignty over the AI buildout has moved from the permit to the bill, and FERC’s June 2026 order delegated the rulemaking to six RTOs rather than setting a national standard.
Anchor figure
~16x spread in one-time grid-connection cost for an identical campus, Texas vs. a full-pierce cost-share state.
Key takeaways
- Twelve-to-fifteen-year take-or-pay minimums make the state-by-state patchwork sticky — this is not a temporary pricing anomaly.
- ERCOT sits outside FERC’s reach, which means the cheapest connection pole is also the one Washington cannot move.
Where it sits in the series
Direct heir to Issue 5 (The Subnational Sovereigns): sovereignty moved from the permit to the bill.
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Forecasts this issue put on the watchlist
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalThe state-by-state grid-connection cost spread widens, and fragmentation persists, through 2027.
Through 2027
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalThe six §206 compliance filings.
60-day filings due ~August 17, 2026 (extendable ~90 days)
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalThe New York large-load moratorium.
One-time, at the signing deadline
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalThe spread: any new state instrument at either pole.
Monthly
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalA campus that moves.
Monthly
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalThe grandfather seam.
Quarterly
Open Grid Connections & Local ApprovalMarket-operator rules (PJM, MISO, et al.; ERCOT apart).
Quarterly docket check
Open FinancingNextEra-Dominion ($67B).
One-time at the Q3 2026 filing, then the 2027 decision
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