ISSUE 012 · The Aroko Letter
The Hostage Chip
Where the memory relief horizon actually sits, and who holds it hostage until then
Narrows the allocation-machinery frame from Issue 11 to memory specifically: what it would take for high-bandwidth memory scarcity to actually ease, and why the relief date keeps getting priced earlier than the physical schedule supports.
Key takeaways
- Memory follows the same scarcity-to-intervention path as compute and power before it — the allocation machinery built for one commodity does not need to be rebuilt for the next.
- The relief timeline consensus is pricing in manufacturing capacity that the physical build schedule does not yet support.
Where it sits in the series
Narrows Issue 11’s allocation-machinery frame from the general case to memory specifically.
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Forecasts this issue put on the watchlist
Open Chips & PackagingAnnual China fab licenses (BIS VEU renewal) for Samsung China and SK Hynix China.
Annual, with in-year re-scoping possible
Open Chips & PackagingMemory contract prices and construction milestones (P&T7 and peer fabs).
Quarterly
Open Chips & PackagingDRAM antitrust litigation against the three memory makers.
As it develops
Open Chips & PackagingWhere AI-grade memory and packaging capacity is sited.
As announced
Open FinancingCapital spending guidance, and how it is financed.
Quarterly
Open Chips & PackagingCompression in production model size and inference footprint.
As major models ship
Open Power EquipmentThe power queue, from both ends: turbine/transformer delivery slots reserved, and interconnection queue withdrawal rates.
Quarterly, and annual queue studies
Open Raw MaterialsGovernment action on open models, following June 2026's export-control precedent.
As events occur
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